By Charles Anyiam (c).
As we all now know, it has been a season of political tsunamis, virtually around the world – most notably in the United States of America where the midterm elections threw up some of the biggest upsets in any election cycle in history – and in Israel – where Prime Minister, Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu finally has his back against the wall.
We may finally see an Israel without a Netanyahu – after 19 harrowing years.
In Brazil, the incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva managed to stave off a fierce opposition from the Bolsonaro political family, with Flavio Bolsonaro as the arrowhead.
Meanwhile, the patriarch of the family, former President Jair Bolsonaro currently sits at home, with monitoring ankle braces, and under house arrest, after being sentenced to a 27-year and three months in prison for coup attempt and conspiracy.
Jair’s health, is said to be failing.
From all indications, the United States under the administration of President Donald Trump is rumored (and believed in some circles) to be behind the abortive plan to remove the liberal-leaning government of President da Silva in Brasilia.
However, not to be easily forgotten is that an equally significant elections cycle – for the local governments – also took place in South Africa almost at the same time – on November 4.
South Africa is therefore the focus of this piece – a South Africa with a battered ruling party – the African National Congress (ANC).
A battered ANC with a battered ego.
And the verdict has come in – a historic ‘ass-whopping’ of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) at the polls!
A couple of years ago, who would have thought that the party of Madiba Nelson Mandela would be so badly beaten in any election in a country where his charm and legacy had propelled the entire world to rally and help dismantle the apartheid system.
Before I proceed any further, I must confess that I may have been among the minority few who foresaw this inevitable change coming to South Africa, some years ago.
The handwriting was everywhere.
Every time I visited (which was quite frequently), I saw laziness. I saw antipathy. I saw an unbridled sense of entitlement. And I saw corruption.
If the truth is to be told, the ANC ruling party had done an absolutely shoddy job of governing.
The ANC’s record in office might therefore lend credence to the notion that the party was not designed to govern, but it was rather a special purpose vehicle for the ending of apartheid.
A local newspaper editor I spoke to while writing this article, said the ANC government simply bungled its way through its tenure – “from foreign policy matters down to domestic bread and butter issues.
“There were too many square pegs in round holes.
“As the revered Archbishop Desmond Tutu once warned the ANC to stop the gravy train.
“But, they wouldn’t listen. And it was only a matter of time, before the cracks turned into holes, through which ordinary South Africans were thrown into deep poverty”.
Like their northern neighbors, it was not long after the end of apartheid that the country – South Africa – degenerated into a cesspool of mediocrity and dysfunction.
Corruption, incompetence, cronyism, and yes, xenophobia had become the new normal in South Africa.
And I honestly believe that the great Madiba, Oliver Reginald Kaizana Tambo, Albert John Luthuli, Bantu Stephen (Steve) Biko, Charlotte Maxeke (called ‘Mother of Black Freedom in South Africa), Lilian Ngoyi, Albertina Sisulu, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, Miriam Makeba, etc. will be turning in disgust, in their respective graves watching what has become of their beloved South Africa.
According to a leading and influential South African podcaster, Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh, the local government elections have become a referendum on the ability of the ANC to continue to hold onto power, going forward.
“What a wipeout? What a whirlwind! And what a whitewash!”, he bellowed.
“This election has delivered everything we thought it would – a catastrophe for the ANC.
“The DA (Democratic Alliance) is looking bullish.
“The EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), and the MK (uMkhonto weSizwe Party), are possibly on the decline.
“What on earth is going on?”, he cried.
“What a collapse of ANC support we are seeing in South Africa!”, he told his over 600,000 followers.
“When Cyril Ramaphosa inherited the ANC, the party stood at 62% of the votes, but now the party stands at a miserly 31%, that is halving of the national vote in less than 10 years.
“That is an insane collapse and decline. And looking at the numbers, one would imagine that there are going to be recriminations inside the ANC, because the ANC has gone from an electoral juggernaut to a mouse.
“And that is quite sad in some ways to see the decline of a once proud liberation movement reduced to a shadow of itself.
“Quite frankly, the ANC saw it coming. The ANC should have known, and one thing I find extremely upsetting right now is that the ANC leaders are still in denial – they are still trying to spin – they are still trying to tell South Africans that things are not looking that bad.
“This is a terrible election for the ANC. The least the leaders could do is to own up to the fact that they have been roundly rejected by the South African people”.
And one of the country’s top economists, Dawie Roodt was less charitable in his assessment of the elections in which the ANC was badly worsted.
Roodt believes that South Africa is better off without the ANC.
He gave reasons why the party of Nelson Mandela is a poor manager of the South African economy.
A well known critic of the government of President Cyril Ramaphosa, he told a reporter that the economy had deteriorated under the current government.
What are therefore the implications of the results of this election cycle for the ANC?
Firstly, the ANC is now under the threat of losing its position as the largest party in South Africa for the first time, which unilaterally means that in the 2029 national elections, the ANC will unlikely produce the next president.
As things stand now, the political calculus points to an ANC that will most likely become a junior partner in any coalition, both at the provincial and national levels.
And that could mean that South Africa is more likely to have a white president in the foreseeable future – an idea that could have been an obvious anathema, just a few years ago.
Statistics from the polls suggest the DA, ordinarily regarded as the ‘white party’, is waxing lyrically strong as it has consistently and systematically been able to attract a sizable number of quality black and colored voters and membership into its ranks, over time.
On the other hand, the poll shows a declining influence of such predominantly ‘black’ parties such as Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, Julius Malema’s EFF, and the IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party), a right wing party in the Kwazulu Natal Province – apart from the asymmetric meltdown of the ANC.
For President Ramaphosa, it seems he is going to be under tremendous pressure to deliver the much needed results for South Africans, leading up to 2029.
And that sounds like a pipe dream.
And so it is for Zuma who also faces a career that seems to be running out its course.
If you ask me, I believe that Cyril Ramaphosa may be the last ANC president in our lifetime – which will be quite lamentable, given the peculiar antecedents of South Africa’s political history.
As for now, the ANC seems to be going, going, and is as good as gone!
*ANYIAM IS THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF THE AFRICAN TIMES/USA, A NATIONAL US NEWS JOURNAL, WITH INTERNATIONAL OFFICES IN LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA, A MEDIA ANALYST, AUTHOR, PUBLIC SPEAKER, AND DIPLOMAT.
