Renaissance Capital Africa (RCA) says it has raised its valuation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE to N700.41 per share, 33.4 percent above the refinery’s initial public offering (IPO) price of N525, after its earnings for the first nine months of 2026 exceeded the investment firm’s estimates.
The company raised the valuation from N619.4 kobo per share.
In an October 16 update titled ‘Stronger Refining Margins Drive Earnings Outperformance,’ RCA said stronger refining margins and better-than-expected operational results lifted the refinery’s revenue, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), and net profit above its forecasts.
The refinery reported revenue of $22.5 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, up 144 percent from $9.2 billion in the corresponding period of 2025, according to its financial results released on October 13.
Its EBITDA rose to $5.5 billion from $627.6 million, while net profit reached $4.7 billion, reversing a loss of $117.2 million recorded in the same period last year.
The refinery’s operating cash flow also increased to $3.68 billion from $364.7 million, while its financial position improved from net debt of $1.73 billion in September 2025 to net cash of $650.8 million in September 2026.
David Bird, chief executive officer of Dangote Refinery, said the third quarter performance demonstrated the company’s transition from commissioning and ramp-up activities to sustainable commercial operations.
The valuation update comes as the refinery’s IPO application period runs until October 27, following a two-week extension announced earlier this month.
The offer opened on September 14, with 4.1 billion ordinary shares priced at N525 each, with the minimum subscription being 10 shares, costing N5,250.
Aliko Dangote, president of Dangote Industries Limited, described the offer as the “People’s IPO,” saying it would give members of the public an opportunity to own shares in the refinery.
The offer is expected to raise N2.15 trillion if fully subscribed.
