ALHAJI Yerima Shettima, a human rights activist and pro-democracy advocate from Kaduna State, is the president-general of the Arewa Youths Consultative Forum, AYCF.
Shettima, who is a strong advocate for true federalism and restructuring, was at the 2005 Pro-National Conference, PRONACO, led by late Chief Anthony Enahoro, in Lagos. In this interview, he spoke on the state of the nation and why Nigeria must get it right in 2027 among others.
What is your take on the state of the nation?
Nigeria, a diverse nation, presents a complex picture. While boasting significant potential in its human and natural resources, it grapples with a multitude of challenges hindering its progress and threatening its stability. Understanding the current state of the nation requires a nuanced examination of its strengths and weaknesses across various sectors.
One of Nigeria’s most significant assets lies in its burgeoning population, representing a vast pool of human capital. A young and energetic workforce fuels various industries, from technology and entertainment to agriculture. Nollywood, the Nigerian film industry, is a global phenomenon, showcasing the nation’s creative energy. Similarly, technological innovation is gradually gaining traction, with a growing number of startups and tech hubs emerging across major cities. This youthful demographic however presents a significant challenge. The sheer number of unemployed and underemployed individuals contributes to social unrest and fuels a sense of disillusionment among the populace. Without adequate investment in education and job creation, this potential source of strength could become a major destabilizing factor.
The nation’s economy, heavily reliant on oil revenue, remains vulnerable to global price fluctuations. This dependence has hindered diversification into other sectors, making the country susceptible to economic shocks. While efforts are underway to promote agriculture and manufacturing, these sectors are hampered by poor infrastructure, insecurity, and a lack of access to credit.
The agricultural sector, which holds immense potential to feed the nation and create jobs, suffers from outdated farming techniques, inadequate storage facilities, and lack of access to modern technology.
Consequently, food insecurity remains a significant concern, particularly in rural areas. Furthermore, corruption, a deeply entrenched problem within the government and private sector, siphons off resources that could otherwise be invested in development initiatives.
Security concerns represent another critical challenge. The activities of Boko Haram in the North-East, farmer-herder clashes across the country, and the rise of various criminal gangs have created a climate of fear and instability. These conflicts displace communities, disrupt economic activity, and undermine the rule of law. The security forces, while making efforts to combat these challenges, are often overwhelmed by the scale of the problem and hampered by a lack of resources and training. This persistent insecurity discourages foreign investment and hinders the development of crucial infrastructure projects.
Beyond security and economic issues, Nigeria faces significant challenges in governance and social development. Political instability, characterized by electoral irregularities and ethnic tensions, often undermines national unity. Inequality in the distribution of wealth and resources exacerbates existing social divisions. Access to quality healthcare and education remains limited for many Nigerians, particularly in rural communities. The lack of access to basic amenities further marginalises these communities, perpetuating a cycle of poverty and inequality. Therefore, there is a pressing need for equitable policies aimed at improving access to these essential services and bridging the gap between the privileged and the underprivileged.
Overcoming these challenges requires a concerted effort from the government, civil society, and the international community. Investment in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and good governance is crucial to unlocking Nigeria’s vast potential and building a more prosperous and equitable future for its citizens. Addressing corruption, promoting inclusivity, and strengthening institutions are essential steps towards achieving this goal and ensuring the stability and progress of this diverse and dynamic nation.
How can we address current economic and security challenges?
One of the most pressing economic challenges is inflation, fueled by factors like increased energy prices, supply chain bottlenecks, and robust consumer demand. This necessitates a coordinated response from central banks worldwide. Monetary policies, such as raising interest rates, aim to curb inflation by reducing borrowing and spending.
However, these measures can also stifle economic growth and lead to job losses, highlighting the delicate balancing act policymakers must navigate. Fiscal policies, including targeted government spending on infrastructure or social programmes, can offer supplementary solutions, but require careful management to avoid exacerbating inflation further.
Furthermore, addressing supply chain vulnerabilities, through diversification of sourcing and investment in domestic manufacturing capabilities, is crucial for long-term economic resilience. This involves fostering greater collaboration between governments and businesses to identify and mitigate potential risks proactively.
Security challenges are equally pressing and intricately linked to economic stability. Effectively addressing the current economic and security challenges requires a holistic and integrated approach. No single solution exists; instead, a coordinated strategy involving monetary and fiscal policies, investment in infrastructure, diversification of supply chains, diplomatic efforts to resolve conflicts, and a global commitment to tackling climate change is essential.
What is your assessment of the President Tinubu administration in addressing these challenges?
President Tinubu’s administration has only just begun, making a comprehensive assessment premature. However, the initial months have provided glimpses into his policy priorities and leadership style, allowing for a preliminary evaluation based on observable actions and pronouncements.
One of the most significant and immediately impactful decisions was the removal of fuel subsidies. This bold move, aimed at addressing years of unsustainable government expenditure, has undeniably caused hardship for many Nigerians. Fuel prices skyrocketed, leading to increased transportation costs and inflation. While proponents argue this restructuring is necessary for long-term economic stability and to free up funds for other crucial sectors, the immediate social consequences cannot be ignored. The government’s promise of palliatives to cushion the effects on vulnerable populations is crucial to mitigating public anger and ensuring the policy’s success. The effectiveness and equitable distribution of these palliatives remain to be seen and will be a key indicator of the administration’s commitment to social welfare.
Another key area of focus for the Tinubu administration is the unification of the exchange rate. The previous multiple exchange rate system was widely criticised for fostering corruption and hindering economic transparency. The move towards a unified rate, while potentially beneficial in the long run by attracting foreign investment and promoting a more stable economy, presents considerable challenges.
The immediate impact has been a significant devaluation of the Naira, contributing to the inflationary pressures already exacerbated by the fuel subsidy removal. The success of this policy hinges on the government’s ability to manage the transition smoothly and implement complementary policies to stimulate economic growth and protect vulnerable segments of the population.
In terms of political appointments, the administration has shown a commitment to diversity, although accusations of partisan appointments haven’t been absent. The selection of cabinet members and other high-ranking officials reflect a balance of regional and ethnic representation, but the long-term efficacy of this approach will depend on the appointee’s competence and commitment to effective governance.
The early appointments suggest an emphasis on experience and expertise in certain areas, while others remain subject to scrutiny regarding their alignment with the administration’s stated goals.
Furthermore, the Tinubu administration has inherited numerous challenges from previous administrations, including insecurity, infrastructure deficits, and widespread corruption. Addressing these complex issues requires a multifaceted approach involving robust law enforcement, strategic investment in infrastructure development, and a sustained commitment to anti-corruption measures.
Tangible results awaited
The early stages have seen pronouncements on these issues, but tangible results are still awaited. The administration’s success in these areas will largely determine its legacy. The fight against insecurity, particularly in the North-East and other volatile regions, requires sustained effort and effective strategies beyond mere rhetoric.
Finally, it’s vital to acknowledge the limitations of assessing an administration so early in its term. Many policies are still under development, and their long-term impacts remain uncertain. The current economic hardship faced by many Nigerians necessitates a careful evaluation of the government’s response and its ability to navigate the challenges effectively. The administration’s success will not be judged solely on initial actions but on its ability to address the root causes of Nigeria’s multifaceted problems and deliver tangible improvements in the lives of its citizens.
Bold disruptive policies
The early days of the Tinubu administration have been characterized by bold but potentially disruptive economic policies. While the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the exchange rate aim to address long-standing structural issues, the immediate consequences have been challenging. The success of these policies depends heavily on effective implementation, alongside robust social safety nets and complementary policies to mitigate the negative impacts on the population. The administration’s ability to navigate these challenges effectively, tackle insecurity, and foster sustainable economic growth will ultimately determine its success and legacy. A more comprehensive and nuanced assessment will require a longer time-frame to observe the tangible outcomes of its policies and initiatives.
All Progressives Congress, APC, National Chairman, Dr Abdullahi Ganduje, and Minister of State (Defence), Dr Bello Matawalle, recently said the North should forget the Presidency in 2027, support Tinubu’s re-election and take power in 2031. How do you see that?
The recent statements by Ganduje, and Bello Mattawalle, former Governor of Zamfara State, advocating for a Northern deferral of the presidential bid until 2031 in favour of Bola Tinubu’s re-election, have sparked significant debate. Their proposition, suggesting the North support Tinubu for a second term and then focus on securing the presidency in 2031, raises questions about political pragmatism, regional power dynamics, and the long-term implications for Nigerian democracy.
One perspective supporting this strategy points to the perceived need for political stability and continuity. After a relatively turbulent transition of power, advocating for Tinubu’s re-election could be framed as a way to ensure political stability and allow the current administration to solidify its policies and initiatives. This continuity could create a more favourable environment for the North to contest the presidency in 2031, possibly with a stronger platform and greater national support.
Furthermore, this approach could be seen as a strategic political maneuver, allowing the North to consolidate its power base and present a more unified and formidable front in the subsequent election cycle. The argument hinges on the belief that backing Tinubu now will yield future rewards in the form of enhanced political capital and influence for the North.
Compelling counter-argument
However, several compelling counter-arguments weaken the proposed strategy. Firstly, it ignores the fundamental principle of democratic competition. Deferring the presidential bid for eight years risks undermining the aspirations of many Northern political leaders and their constituencies. This could lead to internal divisions within the ruling party and the North itself, weakening its overall bargaining power.
Furthermore, the assumption that Tinubu’s re-election guarantees Northern ascendancy in 2031 is inherently flawed. The political landscape is fluid and unpredictable; unforeseen circumstances, shifting alliances, and the emergence of new political forces could easily derail this plan. The proposed strategy thus rests on a precarious foundation of assumed future outcomes.
Secondly, the statements could alienate a significant portion of the Northern population. Many Northern Nigerians may perceive this suggestion as a betrayal of their democratic rights and an acceptance of political subordination. The narrative of sacrificing the presidency for eight years could easily be framed as a concession to Southern dominance, potentially inflaming regional tensions and fostering resentment. This could have far-reaching consequences, undermining national unity and stability in the long term. The potential for widespread public discontent and political backlash is substantial.
Furthermore, the strategy implicitly acknowledges a lack of currently viable Northern candidates capable of winning a national election. This raises serious questions about the leadership and organisational capacity of Northern political parties. Rather than strategising around postponing ambition, perhaps a more effective approach would involve strengthening internal party dynamics, investing in candidate development, and building broader national coalitions. Focusing solely on a deferred presidential bid might distract from the crucial work needed to nurture capable leaders and build sustainable political strength within the North.
Significant risks
While the proposition to support Tinubu’s re-election and aim for the presidency in 2031 may seem like a strategic calculation on the surface, it carries significant risks. The gamble ignores the complexities of Nigerian politics, potentially undermines democratic principles, and risks alienating significant segments of the Northern population. A more holistic and inclusive approach, focusing on strengthening internal party structures, identifying and nurturing viable candidates, and building wider national alliances, would offer a more robust and sustainable path to achieving the North’s presidential aspirations rather than relying on a potentially flawed and short-sighted strategy. The long-term consequences of this proposed plan need to be carefully considered before accepting it as a viable path to power.
What is your take on the tax reform bills?
Tax reform is a perennial topic of debate, sparking passionate opinions on both sides. Tax reform bills, aimed at restructuring the tax system, are inherently complex, juggling competing goals of economic growth, social equity, and government revenue. My perspective is that while the intention behind these bills – usually to simplify the system and stimulate the economy – is often laudable, the actual impact is multifaceted and rarely perfectly aligns with initial projections. The effectiveness of any given tax reform hinges critically on its design and implementation.
One central argument in favour of tax reform is the promise of economic stimulation. Proponents often argue that lower tax rates, particularly for corporations and high-income earners, will incentivize investment, job creation, and ultimately, broader economic growth. The “trickle-down” effect is a frequently cited justification, suggesting that benefits for the wealthy will ultimately benefit everyone through increased employment and higher wages. However, this theory remains contentious. Empirical evidence supporting a strong and consistent trickle-down effect is limited, and critics point to instances where tax cuts for the wealthy have disproportionately benefited the wealthy themselves, with limited impact on the broader economy or the lower and middle classes. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the United States, for example, is often cited as a case study in this debate, with mixed results regarding its impact on economic growth and income inequality.
Furthermore, tax reform often attempts to address issues of fairness and equity. Many argue that a progressive tax system, where higher earners pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes, is morally justifiable and contributes to social welfare programmes. However, defining fairness is inherently subjective. Arguments for flat taxes or regressive taxes (where lower earners pay a larger percentage) often emphasize simplicity and the belief that everyone should contribute equally, regardless of income.
The debate frequently revolves around the balance between individual liberty and societal responsibility, with different tax structures reflecting different philosophical perspectives on this fundamental tension. Successfully navigating this tension is a significant challenge for any tax reform bill.
Beyond economic and social considerations, tax reform also involves significant administrative challenges. Implementing new tax laws requires significant changes to the tax code, necessitating extensive bureaucratic effort and potential for error. The complexity of the tax system, even after reform attempts, can lead to confusion among taxpayers, increased compliance costs for businesses, and increased opportunities for tax evasion. A well-designed reform should aim for clarity and simplicity, minimizing administrative burdens and promoting transparency. However, achieving this ideal is often difficult, particularly when dealing with intricate aspects of international taxation, deductions, and credits.
Tax reform bills represent a complex balancing act between competing economic, social, and administrative goals. While the intended benefits, such as economic growth and improved equity, are often compelling, the actual outcomes are rarely straightforward and depend heavily on the specific design and implementation of the reforms. Evaluating the success of a tax reform bill requires careful consideration of its impact across various segments of society, its long-term economic consequences, and its administrative effectiveness.
Ultimately, the effectiveness of any tax reform hinges on its ability to address the multifaceted challenges it seeks to solve while minimizing unintended negative consequences. A truly successful reform requires a nuanced understanding of the complexities involved and a commitment to evidence-based policy-making.
What is your advice to Nigerians ahead of the 2027 polls?
The 2027 Nigerian general elections are fast approaching, presenting another crucial opportunity to shape the nation’s future. Let me offer advice to Nigerian citizens, encouraging informed participation and responsible citizenship to ensure a free, fair, and credible electoral process that yields a government truly reflective of the people’s will.
Firstly, Nigerians must prioritize voter registration and education. The foundation of a strong democracy rests on active participation. Many eligible voters fail to register, thereby diminishing their voice in the political process. It is crucial to understand the registration process, deadlines, and requirements. Beyond registration, voter education is equally vital. Citizens must be equipped with knowledge about the candidates, their manifestos, and their past records. This requires actively seeking information from credible sources, beyond the often-biased pronouncements of political campaigns.
Understanding the electoral system, including the voting procedure and dispute resolution mechanisms, is equally important to prevent disenfranchisement and to ensure the integrity of the process. Civic organizations, independent media outlets, and educational institutions have a crucial role to play in this voter education initiative.
Secondly, critical engagement with political discourse is imperative. The Nigerian political landscape is often characterized by intense rhetoric and misinformation. Citizens must cultivate a discerning approach to political messaging, carefully assessing claims made by candidates and their parties. This requires critically evaluating the sources of information and identifying biases. Social media, while a potent tool for political engagement, is also susceptible to the spread of disinformation.
Therefore, Nigerians should be skeptical of information consumed online and verify facts from multiple credible sources before forming opinions. Furthermore, engaging in respectful and constructive dialogue with those holding differing political views is crucial for fostering a tolerant and inclusive society. Civil discourse, rather than antagonism, will enhance the quality of debate and encourage a more responsible political environment.
Holding elected officials accountable
Thirdly, holding elected officials accountable is non-negotiable. The power of the electorate extends beyond the ballot box. Citizens must actively monitor the performance of elected officials, holding them accountable for their promises and actions. This accountability mechanism can involve constructive criticism, engaging in peaceful protests, and utilizing available legal channels to address grievances.
Transparency and open access to government information are crucial in this process. Citizens should demand greater accountability through mechanisms such as freedom of information requests and actively participate in civic action groups that champion good governance. A vigilant citizenry is the best check against corruption and inefficiency.
Finally, promoting peaceful and non-violent elections is paramount. The 2027 elections should not be marred by violence or intimidation. Nigerians must commit to peaceful campaigning, voting, and post-election processes. This requires rejecting the use of violence as a tool for political expression and actively working to foster peace and understanding within communities. Incidents of electoral violence often undermine the credibility of the elections and can lead to instability. Citizens have a collective responsibility to ensure a peaceful transition of power. Dialogue, compromise, and respect for the rule of law are essential for achieving this goal.
The 2027 Nigerian elections offer a significant opportunity to shape the country’s trajectory. By actively participating in the registration process, engaging in critical political discourse, holding elected officials accountable, and promoting peaceful elections, Nigerians can ensure that the polls reflect the true will of the people and contribute to building a stronger, more just, and prosperous nation. The responsibility rests on each and every citizen to make their voice heard and to participate responsibly in the democratic process. A vibrant and engaged citizenry is the cornerstone of a thriving democracy.
What is the way forward for Nigeria?
Nigeria, a nation of immense potential and vibrant diversity, faces a multitude of challenges that hinder its progress. From economic instability and insecurity to corruption and infrastructural deficit, the path to a prosperous future requires a multifaceted approach. Finding the way forward necessitates a concerted effort involving the government, citizens, and the international community, focusing on key areas for sustainable development.
One crucial aspect is economic diversification. Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil revenue has proven to be a precarious foundation. Fluctuations in global oil prices directly impact the national budget, leaving the country vulnerable to economic shocks. The way forward demands a strategic shift towards diversifying the economy, fostering growth in sectors like agriculture, technology, and manufacturing.
This requires significant investment in infrastructure, including reliable power supply, transportation networks, and access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Supporting local entrepreneurs and promoting innovation through technology hubs and business incubators can stimulate job creation and economic growth, reducing dependence on oil and building resilience against external pressures.
Addressing insecurity is equally vital. The persistent threats posed by Boko Haram in the North-East, farmer-herder clashes in the Middle belt, and various forms of banditry across the country undermine stability and deter investment. Effective security measures are essential, including strengthening law enforcement agencies, improving intelligence gathering, and addressing the root causes of conflicts. This necessitates a multi-pronged approach that involves military action, but also emphasizes community engagement, conflict resolution mechanisms, and addressing underlying social and economic grievances that fuel insecurity. Creating a sense of fairness and justice, particularly in resource allocation, is crucial for fostering peace and stability.
Tackling corruption is another fundamental step towards national progress. Corruption siphons off public funds, undermines institutions, and discourages foreign investment. Strengthening anti-corruption agencies, ensuring transparency and accountability in government operations, and promoting a culture of ethical conduct are crucial. This requires enacting and enforcing stricter laws, improving judicial processes, and empowering civil society organizations to play a watchdog role.
Protecting whistle-blowers and ensuring their safety is crucial to fostering a culture of transparency and discouraging corrupt practices. The establishment of robust and independent institutions capable of prosecuting and punishing corrupt officials is also vital.
Improving education and healthcare systems is vital for human capital development. Investing in quality education from primary to tertiary levels equips the workforce with the skills needed for a modern economy. This necessitates improving teacher training, providing access to technology, and creating a conducive learning environment. Similarly, investing in accessible and affordable healthcare services improves the health and well-being of the population, increasing productivity and reducing the burden on the economy. This includes improving primary healthcare infrastructure, training healthcare professionals, and ensuring access to essential medicines and vaccines.
Finally, good governance and political stability are indispensable. Promoting participatory democracy, strengthening democratic institutions, respecting the rule of law, and ensuring free and fair elections are essential for sustainable development. This means fostering inclusive political participation, guaranteeing freedom of speech and assembly, and protecting human rights. Transparent and accountable governance fosters trust between the government and its citizens, encouraging collaboration and participation in nation-building.
The way forward for Nigeria involves a complex interplay of economic, security, governance, and social reforms. Addressing these challenges requires a long-term vision, a commitment to sustainable development, and a collective effort from all stakeholders.
By diversifying the economy, enhancing security, combating corruption, improving education and healthcare, and strengthening governance, Nigeria can unlock its vast potential and build a brighter future for all its citizens. The path is challenging, but with dedication, determination, and a commitment to good governance, Nigeria can undoubtedly achieve lasting progress and prosperity.
